Today, in Part 2 of JTF Academy owner / operator and college soccer recruiting expert Jerry Penkala’s analysis of the upcoming fallout from the House v. NCAA lawsuit, he discusses the most likely scenarios for how roster sizes and the overall landscape are expected to change.
To read Part 1 of Penkala’s breakdown of the lawsuit and the likely incoming changes to the business side of college soccer, click here. Continue reading below for the second part of his analysis.
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Since I am so fortunate to have so many college coaching friends that I have worked for so many years, I have been blessed to discuss the details of what dozens of coaches are hearing about the ESTIMATED future roster sizes, and how the future smaller college rosters will cause a ‘trickle down effect’ throughout all conferences, (especially mid-majors) as well as all three NCAA divisions.
Here is a brief summary of what will most likely happen in NCAA women’s soccer, based on this lawsuit and the fallout, according to general consensus from college coaches baed all over the U.S.
FUTURE ROSTER SIZES FOR POWER 4 NCAA PROGRAMS
As mentioned earlier, this will vary between schools (based on how much of the revenue sharing will be given to each women’s soccer program at each individual school) but as a general estimate, it looks to be as low as 18 players for some Power 4 programs. It could also be as high as 22-24 players.
Most coaches are using the lower estimate for what they currently expect, but again, they will not be able to confirm any roster size information until all the lawsuit details are decided later this year.
Currently, most Power 5 Conference women’s soccer programs average around 32-35 players on their rosters. This means that, in a worst-case scenario, around 50% of Power 4 current rosters will be CUT after the 2024 season.
In a best case scenario, it will still mean 25% of current Power 4 rosters will be cut after this season.
As a result, roster sizes being 25-50% smaller will mean much smaller recruiting classes, starting with the Class of 2026. Some Power 4 coaches have even told me that they envision future recruiting classes possibly being ONLY 3-5 players.
While mid-major programs will probably need to cut rosters as well, it will be very minimal since they don’t have the same ‘revenue sharing’ requirements that Power 4 schools do, but they do still need to ‘pay into’ the lawsuit as well. This might give Athletic Departments a reason to take money from some programs and move it over to the highest revenue-generating sports. Again, nothing is decided on yet, but most mid-major coaches I have spoken to, have said that the effect on women’s soccer roster sizes will be minimal.
Of course, with Power 4 Conference programs expected to cut their roster sizes down significantly, the downstream effects of this taking place will be significant.
Stay tuned for Part 3 of Penkala’s analysis, which will dig into how these changes will impact the transfer portal and the entire college soccer landscape.
